And the Academy Award goes to...

Despite my love of film, it’s not until recently I’ve paid any attention to the Oscars.

This isn’t due to the popular opinion amongst the online crowd that they don’t matter. I think their importance is a bit overblown, sure. They definitely see themselves as way more salient than they actually are. But awards shows can be a great way to broaden the audience’s experience (not that the Academy always uses them that way…). At their best, they invite you to consider films you normally wouldn’t, in styles you normally ignore, from places you normally don’t consider. They ask you to consider technical aspects which are often overlooked, such as editing and sound design. And they encourage you to think about movies in a new way, such as picking out a marvelous performance in an otherwise unremarkable film.

Which is why there has been (justifiable) outrage from big names in the industry like Guillermo del Toro about the exclusion of such technical awards from the TV broadcast (a decision which has been reversed for this year’s show). And why there’s disappointment when the list of Best Directors is populated entirely by men and almost exclusively by white people. And why there’s been such excitement over foreign films being nominated for Best Picture, and even more when Parasite won.

But no, truth be told, I just wasn’t super enamored by awards shows growing up. Even for things I loved, like various sports or video games or sci-fi. I think it’s because for sports, they largely feel surface-based, which don’t have a ton of room for rumination. And in various forms of art, I just never consumed enough of it to be able to form opinions. Or if I did, my taste differed enough from the masses that the awards granted didn’t seem to have much of a bearing on me.

So what’s different now? For one, I watch a ton of movies, so while I often have some catching up to do come awards season, it’s very feasible. It also means I can confidently jump into the conversation, in support of some decisions and against others. But the other thing is that the sheer number and specificity of categories I alluded to above affords so many different avenues of discussion and analysis. It lays down a common template from which we can dissect cinema and isolate what makes it great, and even talk about outstanding elements from films which aren’t so special overall.

It’s also a chance for me to make a list. =)

So today, I want to discuss my picks and predictions for the Oscars. My picks are what I’d like to see win from a given category; my predictions are what I think will win. Their separation is an acknowledgement that my personal taste may (and often does) differ from what the broader public and even critics circles value. Although this year, I’m more in line with the consensus in many places. I’ll start with the technical awards, and work towards the acting awards, and end with Best Picture.

(You can check out my full reviews for every nominee over on Letterboxd)

Best Visual Effects

My Pick & Prediction - Avatar: The Way of Water

The first Avatar movie effectively brought 3D out of museums and theme parks and into theatrical filmgoing. The advancements on display in Avatar: The Way of Water aren’t quite as earth shaking, although its successful usage of high frame rate could prove to be its largest technological legacy. Even the standard frame rate shots look incredible throughout. And every time I see another film in 3D serves to highlight just how much Avatar blows them out of the water.

Of course, it’s not all about the 3D and high frame rate. The animation over the motion captured performances is impeccable, and the creature design very much feels like it belongs on Pandora while being a change from the forests.

Best Film Editing

My Pick & Prediction - Everything Everywhere All At Once

Everything Everywhere All At Once has an incredibly difficult job. It needs to keep you grounded while quickly jumping between different universes, and to make it clear when a character’s body is inhabited by an alternate self. A number of techniques are used for this, but the editing is what keeps it all clear, no matter where we are or what’s happening. There’s also some great editing jokes in there which are still lodged in my brain almost a year later.

An argument could be made for Elvis, as it sprints at a frenetic pace through much of Elvis’ life, while somehow still ensuring you have time to take it all in. And the various concert scenes cut between Elvis’ electric stage presence and the audience reaction with precision. But the camera work is doing more of the heavy lifting in those scenes.

Best Costume Design

My Pick - Everything Everywhere All At Once
My Prediction - Babylon

As a period piece about Hollywood itself, Babylon has ample opportunity to show off a myriad of looks. From the opening party to the assembly line of film sets to the passage of years, the costume department had free reign, and they really captured the time period well. And the Academy does love itself.

But the costumes in Everything Everywhere All At Once need to communicate a lack of time period, to tell a story all on their own, and they mostly pull it off. We get flashes of other worlds, have little time to learn anything about them, and yet they establish their own aesthetic.

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

My Pick - Elvis
My Prediction - The Whale

Elvis is a figure who still looms large in pop culture, but his hair towers highest of all. His pompadour is still the shorthand for the man himself. And this movie captures it incredibly well. Not to mention all the rest of the work to truly transform Butler into The King, and make you feel the passage of time by the changing clothing styles.

The effort to transform Fraser into a morbidly obese man for The Whale is impressive and successful. It’s such a talked about performance, particularly Fraser and the look, that it feels like the front-runner. I personally have a hard time giving it to a movie for a single character.

Best Cinematography

My Pick - Bardo, False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths
My Prediction - All Quiet on the Western Front

All Quiet on the Western Front is a gorgeous movie, and it’s often used as a contrast to the brutality and horror of WWI. And the voters love a pretty, gritty war film.

But for Bardo, the starkness and creativity of the shots is crucial to the storytelling, and how well it works is proof of just how effective it is, from the opening shot of a shadow to Silverio’s party to the closing sequence. There are so many stark choices and interesting shots and creatively blocked scenes. It looks like nothing I’ve seen, not even Birdman.

Best Production Design

My Pick & Prediction - Babylon

There’s some element of “Most Production Design” to Babylon, yes, but that’s largely because Babylon is such a big movie. It really feels like the Hollywood of Babylon is a completely different town than it is today. The sheer variety on display in the stable of film sets we visit early on is remarkable. I was transported.

Best Sound

My Pick & Prediction - Elvis

So I really have no idea what the Academy is gonna pick. All these films sound great. Maybe the best argument apart from Elvis is Avatar, since they had to create the sounds of an alien planet? But my hunch is that this category is going to the music movie. There are a few points, namely some concerts, where shivers run down your spine at how intense and wonderful the music and Butler’s voice is. You really get the sense of what it must have been like to be there. Of course, there’s a lot that goes into creating that feeling, but much of it is does with sound.

Best Original Song

My Pick & Prediction - "Naatu Naatu" from RRR

RRR was a phenomenon last year. Everybody saw it, and everybody loved it. It may be the only movie which received anything close to the reception of Everything Everywhere All At Once. And yet, this is its only nomination. For that reason alone, I’d say it was likely to win.

But holy shit, that song is fantastic. You can nearly hear the characters flinging themselves around the screen, and feel their gigantic smiles, even without seeing the scene. It’s kinetic and joyful as hell, not to mention catchy. I don’t see how anything else has a shot.

Best Original Score

My Pick & Prediction - Babylon

Babylon opens with a huge number, both in size and grandiosity. The repeated trumpet blast at its center, which also formed the center of its first trailer, just burrows into your brain and refuses to leave. It never quite lets up, if for no other reason than one of the plot lines we follow is that of a musician.

Banshees definitely has a shot, and I wrestled with whether to pick it. It’s a much more subtle, atmospheric score, which makes sense given that the movie kinda revolves around music.

I should also note that my favorite score of the year wasn’t nominated: The Whale, by Rob Simonsen. In a movie I really didn’t like, it does a lot of the film’s heavy emotional lifting, and is a powerful piece of music on its own. I’ve listened to it a couple times since.

Best Animated Short Film

My Pick & Prediction - Ice Merchants

Animation has been the strongest category amongst the shorts recently, and this year is no different. A variety of styles and stories and structures and sensibilities. And they seem most willing to end when the story is over.

Ice Merchants is gorgeous, its plot is fantastical and whimsical, and the shots are tense. Especially if you’re lucky enough to see it on the big screen, their whole cliff-side existence seems perched on the edge of disaster. The shot looking down at the boy swinging nonchalantly back and forth over the edge is terrifying. Ultimately, it’s a beautiful story about love and loss and carrying on and the passage of time. All of which is encapsulated in a single mesmerizing still shortly before the end.

Also, shout out to My Year of Dicks. This was so close to my personal pick. It’s endearing and hilarious and cringey in the “Oh, I remember that age” sort of way. It probably has the best animation, as it seamlessly switches and blends styles across its 5 segments. And it ends up having a lot to say in a variety of directions. Watch it!

I wouldn’t be surprised by any of these winning, and only one would upset me. See if you can guess which!

Best Live Action Short Film

My Pick - The Red Suitcase
My Prediction - An Irish Goodbye

This is another category with an easy answer: The Red Suitcase. We start not entirely sure what’s happening, and slowly gather the pieces to understand Arlane’s hesitation. And what transpires is an excellent class in how to utilize all of a small space in a way that feels organic. Just a perfect screenplay, and Nawelle Evad shines in this thriller.

But fairly or not, I tend to think Academy prefers more sentimental shorts. And An Irish Goodbye has that type of whimsical darkness which all works out well for everyone in the end. It’s good, but like the rest of them, it just doesn’t stand out to me.

Best Documentary Short Subject

My Pick - Stranger at the Gate
My Prediction - The Martha Mitchell Effect

This is my first year watching the documentaries, and overall, I wasn’t impressed. Shorts feel to me like a chance to experiment, and these were mostly talking heads chronicling of events. Haulout was a bit different, but it just didn’t really land. The Martha Mitchell Effect was actually my least favorite, but stories about Nixon are all the rage right now, and it seems like an easy way for the Academy to feel like they’re saying something political without actually doing so.

Even my favorite, Stranger at the Gate, is not without its problems. But I appreciate the way the story unfolds, and the tension breaks are very well done. The POV from which it flows robs it of some of its power and opens it up to less favorable interpretations, which is fair. But I take away the message that the hard work of empathy is able to speak to even those who are the furthest gone, so it worked on me.

Best Documentary Feature

My Pick - Moonage Daydream (not nominated)
My Prediction - All That Breathes

I can’t really weigh in on this category. I’m not a big documentary watcher, and almost none of the nominees played at my local theater. The only one was Fire of Love, and it was pretty good. My favorite doc, and my second favorite new release I saw last year, wasn’t even nominated. Which is a shame.

Moonage Daydream is challenging what a documentary can be. It’s messing around with the form, and yet still evokes intense emotion in a much more engaging way. It’s part collection of Bowie giving interview answers, part concert film, and part acid trip. One of the best theater going experiences I had all year.

As for the actual nominees, I’ve been hearing a lot about All The Breathes, so maybe that one will end up winning? *shrug*

Best International Feature Film

My Pick - Close
My Prediction - All Quiet on the Western Front

The Academy’s pick is obvious. If an international film is good enough that it’s nominated for Best Picture, and it’s also nominated for Best International Film, then by transitive property they must consider it the best of the international features. And looking back at films which were nominated for both awards, it always* wins at least Best International Film.

It’s also an easy pick for me, but for different reasons. Close is an incredibly intimate and heart-wrenching film, while also managing a deep exploration of systemic forces in the world that shape our lives in ways we might not realize. There’s as much power in silence as there is in speech. It is devastating and beautiful and moving beyond belief.

*The Emigrants was nominated for the two awards in separate years.

Best Animated Feature Film

My Pick - Marcel the Shell with Shoes On
My Prediction - Guillermo del Toro's Pinocchio

The whole animated feature film category was surprisingly good this year, despite not being too far outside the box. There was no It’s Such a Beautiful Day tier entry, but I enjoyed all of these films. Really, I could see the Academy going for any of them. But I think they’ve previously shown their appreciation for del Toro, the cast is wonderful, and its dark fairy tale quality feel like it could become a kid’s favorite given time.

But personally, Marcel was what grabbed me. I honestly had no intentions of seeing it until it came to my local indie theater. Even then, I just found myself with a free afternoon. Which was very fortunate, because it’s wonderful. The melding of stop-motion with live-action is seamless. But more than any of that, it has a lot to say about our world. About our relationship to celebrity, our tendency to thrust anyone into the spotlight at a moment’s notice, and how we want to be near that glory without necessarily engaging with the subject matter. And that’s just one section of the plot!

Best Adapted Screenplay

My Pick - Women Talking
My Prediction - Glass Onion

Adapted Screenplay is often an odd category, since by Academy definitions, sequels are adapted due to containing pre-existing characters. Such is the case for two of this year’s nominees, neither of which I think are great movies, but are solid uses of their key character(s). While I wouldn’t pick either, people have been losing their minds about Glass Onion since it hit Netflix, so I bet the Academy throws it a bone here.

It’s harder to consider how well Living and Women Talking adapt their respective sources, as I’m not familiar with them. All Quiet is not a great adaptation of the novel, from what I recall. It just seems to miss some major themes, and fumble some others.

Women Talking, however, feels like it was intended as a play. That novel must be dense. And yet, the movie moves. Despite much of it taking place in a single setting, you never feel confined to it. The space is well used, the windows give way to lovely landscapes, and when we do leave the farmhouse we really revel in it. The conversations themselves are also quite dynamic. While it could easily have been a play, at no point does it feel like one.

Best Original Screenplay

My Pick & Prediction - The Fabelmans

If I’m really trying to isolate which movie’s screenplay is the best, then there isn’t a bunch of competition. As much as I adore The Banshees of Inisherin and Tár, and really enjoy Everything Everywhere All at Once, all of them need strong performances to pull it off. They’re great screenplays, don’t get me wrong. But what really elevates the work is outstanding acting conveying all the complexities and nuances of those characters. Without them, something is lost. Some of that comes from the screenplay, absolutely. But would it really be anything special in another actor’s hands?

The one exception amongst the nominees is The Fabelmans. Which isn’t to say it’s devoid of great acting: Michelle Williams definitely earned her nomination, and Gabriel LaBelle is also doing great work. But the screenplay doesn’t lean on them. It doesn’t ask a ton of its stars, just competence and commitment. They bring some nuance that makes it hit harder and feel more true, but the script itself does most of the heavy lifting. Additionally, I think the Academy wants to give it an award, and this is probably its best shot.

Best Supporting Actress

My Pick - Kerry Condon
My Prediction - Angela Bassett

The only buzz I’ve been hearing for Supporting Actress is Angela Bassett. Which I find very odd. Her performance didn’t stand out to me at all, to a point that I struggle to remember anything of her from Wakanda Forever (granted, it’s an incredibly forgettable film). I’d be happier with any of the other nominees.

But I’d be most happy with Kerry Condon. Siobhán is such an interesting character, and one who works to truly better her lot in life, all while navigating the messiness of the island. And you can read Condon’s thoughts on her face, and watch them wash over her in waves from moment to moment as she further ponders the situation.

Stephanie Hsu is a close second.

Best Supporting Actor

My Pick & Prediction - Ke Huy Quan

I mean, how can you not? Of that whole cast, he does by far the best job of making it clear when one of his alternate timeline versions has jumped into his body, which is even more important for his character than most others, especially at the outset. He’s absolutely the emotional core of the film. Add in that it’s his return to acting after over 30 years, and there’s really no question.

It’s too bad this is Keoghan’s competition, as I thought he was absolutely perfect. So few scenes to pull off all the layered characterization necessary for his character to work, and it all sets up an excellent pay off at the end.

Best Actress

My Pick & Prediction - Cate Blanchett

For me personally, this is an easy choice. There are only two real contenders for Best Actress (amongst these nominees *cough* Viola Davis *cough* Thandiwe Newton *cough*), and Blanchett’s embodiment of Lydia Tár is uncanny. Her walk, her manner of speech, her ticks, etc. There’s a reason so many people walked out of that film thinking she’s a real person.

The Academy’s is trickier. Yeoh’s performance was pretty great, and has gotten some buzz and wins. I give the edge to Blanchett, not because I think the Academy likes her more, but because I think this is (sadly) Tár’s only real shot at an award.

Best Actor

My Pick - Paul Mescal
My Prediction - Colin Farrell

Let me be clear; I’d be fine with either of them getting the nod. Both are doing fantastic work in their respective films, delivering layered and very poignant performances. I just think that Mescal’s is more complex and nuanced. The screenplay demands a lot of him, and he delivers in an incredibly moving and haunted portrait of a young father who’s still trying to figure things out and wondering where it all went wrong. When the movie enters some sizable stretches of little happening, you can see everything is running through his head, keeping you engaged and entranced.

Best Director

My Pick - Todd Field
My Prediction - Daniels (Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert)

Best Director is always a tricky category, as it’s often very tied up in which movie you liked the most. Indeed, before the Oscars switched to ranked choice voting for Best Picture, they were almost always won for the same film. It’s still common for that to happen, but less of a given. But note that all the nominees are for films also nominated for Best Picture.

I try to think about all the little details, all the nuances, all the choices that had to be made. What is this character’s motivation? What shots should comprise this scene? What’s the narrative flow? And after doing so, I tend to find it tracks with my favorite film of the year.

And I think the Academy feels the same way. As such, I bet you know what’s coming next…

Best Picture

My Pick - Tár
My Prediction - Everything Everywhere All at Once

I walked out of my showing of Tár, and I’ve barely stopped thinking about it since. It’s one of the most remarkable films I’ve seen, from the way it’s constructed to how slow and quiet and deliberate it is to its nuanced message and the way it’s delivered. It’s one of the most rewarding experiences I’ve had pulling together all the little bits and pieces to understand what’s going on. It treats its audience as smart, attentive watchers of films, which frees it to do more without feeling the need to spell everything out. All of which leads to many reads on the movie, an ambiguity that lends itself to many readings and much discussion, and many re-watches.

That being said, Everything Everywhere All At Once is going to win. I’ve rarely been so sure about something in all my life. It sweeping the Guild awards removes any tension from the Oscars race. Which is fine! While it didn’t make my top 10 of the year (stay tuned for a future post), I did enjoy it. For one, it is a very good film. But more importantly, that the industry is paying such close attention to such a batshit movie, and one with a pretty low budget. It’s got big budget reach, but feels nothing like our recent event films. And it is one of the most beloved movies of my lifetime. All of which is to say the fact that it’s doing so well and making such waves in the industry is a good thing if you’re exhausted by the current blockbuster landscape, regardless of what you think of the movie itself.

To wrap it all up, I’ll count down my ranking of the Best Picture nominees.

10. Top Gun: Maverick
9. Triangle of Sadness
8. All Quiet on the Western Front
7. Elvis
6. The Fabelmans
5. Everything Everywhere All at Once
4. Avatar: The Way of Water
3. Women Talking
2. The Banshees of Inisherin
1. Tárt