The 2025 Oscars
What an exciting year for the Academy Awards!
I haven't been paying close attention to the Oscars for all that long. But the years I have featured an early consensus regarding the major awards, be it the winner or a head-to-head matchup. While that's basically true for this year's acting categories, and both screenplay categories seem to be coalescing, the two awards most people focus on (Best Director and Best Picture) are quite uncertain. More than half of the nominees could claim to be in the conversation for much of awards season. Even now, although the contenders have been whittled down, uncertainty persists with the ceremony less than twelve hours away. Maybe this is fairly common, and my impression is a symptom of paying closer attention to the details of the race than ever before. To hear Oscars prognosticators talk about it, though, I don't think so. Which is fun!
It seems fitting. As I said in my year-end wrap up, 2024 felt strange at first before calming down and approaching something like a normal movie year. Why shouldn't the Oscars mirror that?
This year, I kept track of movies I thought deserved Oscars in various categories, to aid me in discussing snubs. But the snubs were so egregious, I barely needed to consult it. I mention some below, but allow me to emphasize that Nickel Boys deserved more love, and Challengers and I Saw the TV Glow deserved any love at all. I've been happy to see Dìdi (弟弟) getting Sean Wang and Izaac Wang accolades at other shows, but a nod on this huge night would have been nice. And I continue to despise the existence of Best Original Song.
Next year, they'll add Best Casting, the first new category in twenty-five years, and only the third new one since 1950. I think that's great, although it risks turning into a pseudo-"Best Ensemble" award. I hope the focus can stay on finding the perfect actor for a role, especially creative uses of established performers and the discovery of new ones. We'll need a few years of winners to really know.
Alright, enough aimless blathering! On to my picks and predictions.
My Picks & Predictions
Here we go! For each category, I’ll name what I think should win from amongst the nominees, what I think will win (if that’s different), and then some comments on the category and nominees and snubs and such.
Best Visual Effects
My Pick & Prediction - Dune: Part Two
This is such a baffling set of nominees. Granted, the types of films nominated here tend to be less interesting to me, as they lean towards grand visuals over supporting their story. But the showstopping, central elements in most of these movies suck. The ape movements in Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes look weightless despite being mocap. The CGI set pieces throughout Wicked are a mess, especially the "Defying Gravity" finale. The character of Rook in Alien: Romulus is a terrible, unsightly, distracting blend of animatronic and CGI, no matter the achievement it supposedly represents.
Dune: Part Two is the one which manages to pull it off. No doubt this is in part because it's a fantastical setting, thus lacking easy real-world reference points. Still, everything feels appropriate for their setting, and works in concert with the rest of the film such that nothing stands out as anything other than awesome. Yes, Better Man does such a marvelous job you barely notice Robbie is a chimp after a bit, even as it propels you through energetic set pieces. But given the size and spectacle of Dune, especially when contrasted with the other similarly-scaled entries, I think the Academy will agree.
Best Film Editing
My Pick - The Brutalist
My Prediction - Anora
One of the biggest misconceptions about editing is that long films are poorly edited. Length has nothing to do with it. It's all about tuning the pace of the film, constructing seamless transitions (which often means "invisible"), choosing takes that keep the viewer oriented in the scene, and ensuring the timing achieves the desired emotions in the audience. Chopping up a film can make it feel rushed, denying the audience the opportunity to truly engage with the text on the level required.
Given that I barely felt the passage of time in either viewing of The Brutalist, I have to give major kudos to Dávid Jancsó. Everything flowed perfectly to pull you in and forget the rest of the world. That said, despite its strength across a bunch of categories, I'm figuring the Academy will react more strongly to the masterful control of the tempo Sean Baker displayed in his editing of Anora (which he also directed, of course).
Best Costume Design
My Pick - Nosferatu
My Prediction - Wicked
As much as I enjoyed Wicked, I don't quite understand the effusiveness of the praise it's received (nor the intensity of the vitriol). I feel it most acutely in the elements borrowed from or heavily inspired by the stage play. Were the costumes in the movie good? Absolutely! But having seen the Broadway performance a couple times, they didn't feel especially inspired, even as they were well executed.
Conversely, none of my watches of the original Nosferatu prepared me for the iconic looks in the remake. Most indelible is Ellen's bonnet, of course. But the overall Gothic-style period dress plays a huge role in conveying the mood of these people. The way Orlok's disheveled and tattered appearance really hammers home how much of an outsider he is to their way of life, and therefore a threat. Not the most unique, to be sure, but impactful.
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
My Pick & Prediction - The Substance
A movie as concerned with superficiality and beauty as The Substance is almost tailor made for this category. While Monstro Elisasue is the (deserving) centerpiece of the work, the physical appearance of both Elizabeth and Sue is incredibly important to the story. That we're instantly struck by Elizabeth's beauty and sex appeal, only for her to be immediately fired by a slovenly producer for being "too old", succinctly sets the tone. And the inhuman physical perfection of Sue creates an unattainable standard. Both of which perfectly contrast Elizabeth's feelings of inadequacy and eventual deterioration, leading right into the magnificent finale.
Best Cinematography
My Pick - Nosferatu
My Prediction - The Brutalist
That Nickel Boys isn't represented here is baffling. It's not like it's an especially strong year: Emilia Pérez got a nod, which looks...fine, at best. I'd have thought Nickel Boys had an edge since the cinematography plays a huge, inextricable role in the story. Does the Cinematographer's Branch tend to prefer subtle yet powerful craftsmanship? Maybe that's it, as the other three films certainly look great while being less showy.
In any case, of these, Nosferatu is my clear winner. The sense of dread of the camera, the otherworldly movements making you feel like a spirit watching the events unfold, the use of color and shadow and such just give it such a distinct look. However, with the overall strength of The Brutalist and the love it's received this awards season, I think it'll to notch another win here.
Best Production Design
My Pick - Nosferatu
My Prediction - Wicked
Most years, it's Best Costume Design which moves in lockstep with Best Makeup & Hairstyling. But this year, I think it will be Best Production Design. And it just so happens I have the same basic arguments for both, so I'll spare you the repetition.
Best Sound
My Pick - Dune: Part Two
My Prediction - A Complete Unknown
It's the year of the musical in Best Sound: three of the five fit that bill (A Complete Unknown has enough full performances, just lacks choreography). This runs counter to my impression of what this award is concerned with. I'd thought it erred more towards sound design and immersion and texture, as emphasized by recent winners The Zone of Interest, Sound of Metal, and even Top Gun: Maverick. Which is why I found it baffling that Nickel Boys was omitted from the nominees. But I guess we're focused on instrumentation this time.
Oscars prognosticators think the overall Academy agrees with my perception, favoring Dune: Part Two. But I'm not so sure they'll be able to resist the call of Timmy and his admittedly outstanding performances of Dylan's work.
Best Original Song
My Pick & Prediction - "El Mal" from Emilia Pérez
I continue to be annoyed by this category's presence at the Oscars. The songs are rarely important to the movie, if they even show up before the credits roll. It feels tailor made for musicals, but there are rarely enough good ones to fill out 5 nominees. And even in years with one or two decent nominees, the winners are almost always bland, boring ballads: think "What Was I Made For" winning over "I'm Just Ken" last year.
So say what you will about Emilia Pérez and its songs, "El Mal" is at least an interesting entry. Is it electrifying or fun or all that great? I mean...it's no "Natu Natu", that's for damn sure. But at least it's unorthodox, easily the standout of the group.
PS: Can we stop with the Dianne Warren meme? It's a shame she wasn't awarded in her prime, yes. But we don't have to nominate her every year for whatever trite garbage she craps out. If we must, and that's a huge "if", why is it always tied to some 1-star trash?
Best Original Score
My Pick & Prediction - The Brutalist
This is another category where I just don't understand some of the key omissions. How do you snub The Substance? More egregiously, how do you leave Challengers off this list?! Best I can figure is that enough voters were sick of hearing the names Trent Reznor & Attitcus Ross. If that's the case, why call it "Best"? Follow the lead of the upcoming Thunderbolts movie and add an asterisk.
That said, there are a few worthy alternatives. Chief amongst them is The Brutalist, whose florid and somewhat discordant jazz score reminds me of American Fiction's from last year. Its opening boldly announces its arrival before receding into the fine nuance and complexity that will dominate the rest of the film, perfectly setting the tone after the overture has drawn you in. I could see the Academy zagging here and going with Conclave, given its recent wins and their love of Edward Berger. But even as that film has gained steam, I've heard little talk of its score specifically, so I'm doubtful.
Best Animated Short Film
My Pick - In the Shadow of the Cypress
My Prediction - Beautiful Men
Despite being the strongest of the three shorts categories each year I've watched them, the Academy is skilled at picking the only terrible one of the bunch. Fortunately, there's no easy pick this year: none of them are bad! Magic Candies is my least favorite, and it's still good. So what will the Academy do? The Annies aren't very predictive, with last year being their first match with the Oscars since 2017, and one of the few of this century. As such, I'm deliberately not predicting their winner Wander to Wonder, anticipating they'll go with a less aggressive but still moving story in Beautiful Men.
Given my adoration of The Ice Merchants a few years ago, my favorite should come as no surprise. In the Shadow of the Cypress is a stylistically animated, impressionistic, wordless story about what it takes to overcome trauma and even begin to make amends for the impact you've had on the lives of your loved ones. It's a beautiful gut-punch of a film, whose every frame I'd be proud to hang on my wall.
Best Live Action Short Film
My Pick - The Man Who Could Not Remain Silent
My Prediction - I'm Not a Robot
The Academy has been less predictable in this generally weaker category, once again populated almost exclusively by message films. This includes the best entry, The Man Who Could Not Remain Silent, which subtly but pointedly condemns the masses for claiming they'd speak out in the face of injustice, only to conveniently find reasons they simply cannot. Given the disturbing political situation in the US currently, you could see many voters wanting to highlight such a message.
However, I'm betting there will be a greater desire for distraction from it. And given Hollywood's concerns with AI, I think the comedic I'm Not a Robot will win out, further boosted by its serendipitous synchrony with Companion.
Best Documentary Short Subject
My Pick - Incident
My Prediction - Death By Numbers
As always, the weakest of the shorts categories is the docs. Even when the nominated films highlight interesting subjects, so few do anything with that. This year is no exception. Two are music docs (one about children and one about a legendary upright bassist), and two are about the death penalty and what justice means in the face of murder. I Am Ready, Warden does stand out a little bit by having us watch in real-time as the victim's son realizes the execution of his father's murderer wasn't healing, and if anything just makes him feel worse. But they're all told in the same basic style.
Save for Incident. One of the most upsetting, infuriating, and visceral pieces of video you'll ever see. Compiled from body cam and security camera footage, we see police murder an unarmed black man in Chicago. What makes it somehow more disturbing is the aftermath, from how they discuss the incident to their interactions with the crowd that forms to how they comfort each other and comfort the murderer, telling him "You did nothing wrong." An incredible usage of existing footage to highlight the details of the problem, and how quickly the police start lying to themselves and to each other.
Best Documentary Feature
My Pick - Soundtrack to a Coup d'Etat
My Prediction - No Other Land
It's ironic that No Other Land is widely considered the front-runner. Of the four, it's the only one that hasn't landed a distribution deal, presumably due to the multi-national corporations in the industry being scared of touching a film which so clearly indicts Israel's government and military. This should have made it harder to see. Instead, a bunch of smaller, independent theaters struck their own deals with the filmmakers, bolstering its stature. A fact I'm grateful for, as it's a phenomenal and terrifying and disgusting and infuriating film. Its release could barely have come at a more relevant time. Notably, it covers Israel's actions in Masafer Yatta between 2019 and 2023: the film was completed in October 2023, as the current war and accompanying genocide ramped up.
But I cannot ignore the brilliant achievement that is Soundtrack to a Coup d'Etat. The masterful weaving of history, the way the editing mirrors the music, the perfect juxtaposition, and the use of the past to comment on the present are just exhilarating from start to finish. Especially when it comes to documentaries, structure is an important consideration, as the popular "talking heads" is incredibly stale. No Other Land is also format breaking, but Soundtrack to a Coup d'Etat is in another league. Even though it has no chance of winning, that something like it was even nominated is exciting.
Best International Feature Film
My Pick - The Girl with the Needle
My Prediction - I'm Still Here
Every year in which a film was nominated for both Best Picture and Best International Feature, it has won Best International Feature. This year, we have the unique situation of that applying to two films. Of course, Emilia Pérez had been the overwhelming favorite in this category. It was their award to lose. And lose it they did: the revelation of Karla Sofía Gascón's horribly racist, sexist, and Islamophobic tweets killed its chances. Combined with the surprising strength of I'm Still Here, I'd be quite surprised to see this go another way.
The Girl with the Needle hasn't garnered much discussion in my circles. That's a shame, as it was one of my favorite films at NHFF 2024. It's gorgeously shot, impeccably acted, perfectly scripted, and emotionally devastating. That last part is probably what's kept people away. Still, I highly recommend it. Just be prepared for two very bleak hours.
Best Animated Feature Film
My Pick - The Wild Robot
My Prediction - Flow
For a while, I was under the impression that The Wild Robot was basically a lock. While audiences loved Inside Out 2, enough to make it the highest grossing film of the year and highest grossing animated film of all time (until this year, when Ne Zha 2 blew it out of the water), the consensus has been it's second tier Pixar. Memoir of a Snail didn't make much of a splash despite being loved by those who've seen it, myself included. And Wallace & Grommit slunk out at the end of the year to little discussion.
But Flow has been exploding. I chalk it up to the internet's love of cats and cute animals generally, as I remain unimpressed. The story is solid but nothing special, and you can very much tell it was animated in consumer grade software: at best, it looks like an early 2010s video game. But I seem to be alone in that opinion, as it's racked up a bunch of industry and critic awards, most prominently capturing the Golden Globe for Best Animated Feature Film. Its nomination for Best International Feature is a sign of overall support in the Academy membership, so it's definitely the favorite (although not a lock).
Best Adapted Screenplay
My Pick - Sing Sing
My Prediction - Conclave
I really wanted to believe Nickel Boys could notch a win after being snubbed in its two defining categories. But the recent Conclave wins at SAG and the BAFTAs have convinced me otherwise. It's great screenplay, to be sure, but when competing against my favorite film of the year, everything else is at a disadvantage.
Although, if I'm being honest, as remarkable as the Nickel Boys screenplay is as a work of adaptation, it's Sing Sing which most bowled me over in that respect. The way its characters and their arcs are constructed give the actors so much space to rip out your heart, and paint an incredibly nuanced and complex picture of its subjects.
Best Original Screenplay
My Pick - September 5
My Prediction - A Real Pain
I've become less confident in my prediction given Anora's recent strength, but I'm sticking with it. I still think that A Real Pain missing out on a nomination for Best Picture was a surprise, so its supporters will rally behind it here. Personally, while I agree the dialog sparkles, I found it to have a bunch of structural and pacing issues, so I can't get on board.
I actually like the other three nominees (Anora, The Brutalist, and The Substance) more than my pick, September 5. But as good as their screenplays are, it's their performances and cinematography and production design and score which makes them incredible. Being a thriller, September 5 can't lean on its craft as much, and needs it screenplay to keep you engaged, which it does very capably.
Best Supporting Actress
My Pick - Monica Barbaro for A Complete Unknown
My Prediction - Zoe Saldaña for Emilia Pérez
Saldaña's nomination in this category is one of the most egregious instances of category fraud I can imagine. The only case for her as supporting is that the movie is named for a different character, a nonsensical argument. The reality is Best Supporting Actress is weaker this year, making her path to victory far easier. Even apart from that, I still don't get the love for her performance. It's fine! It's fine. I like every other nominee better, as well as a number of passed over performances. But here we are.
I cheered when I saw that Monica Barbaro was nominated. While Chalamet and Norton carry the film, her presence is such an important element of the story. She has that wry and condescending confidence at first as she meets this ambitious nobody, which sours into bitterness not only as he succeeds at her expense, but as he proves to be a total asshole. While Timmy has been receiving the bulk of the attention for his singing (which is fantastic), her vocal work is nothing to scoff at. I was unfamiliar with Barbaro before this, and she blew me away.
Best Supporting Actor
My Pick - Yura Borisov for Anora
My Prediction - Kieran Culkin for A Real Pain
This was maybe the most difficult category in which to pick my winner. I love four of the five performances. If I really think about which ones are necessary for their movies to achieve their depth and complexity, two emerge. Jeremy Strong's portrayal of Roy Cohn makes you want to punch his face for the whole movie, perfectly pitched to highlight Trump's villainy in a single indelible moment near the end of the film. But on my re-watch of Anora, I picked out a plethora of instances in which Borisov subtly drew connections between his background and Ani's, deepening the class commentary in ways which will reward revisitation. Plus, he has some of the funniest reactions in a film full of them.
Of course, none of that matters, because Cukin's had this locked up since before awards season even began.
Best Actress
My Pick - Mikey Madison for Anora
My Prediction - Demi Moore for The Substance
Narratives don't always produce winners, but it would seem silly to bet against it here. It's Moore's first nomination in her nearly fifty(!) year career. It comes for a film which is about the pressures women are subjected to in Hollywood, and how they're often forced out of the mainstream early, while older men face no such stigma. And it's for a horror film, which the Oscars aren't great about recognizing. It would be a very deserving win.
That said, I haven't stopped thinking about Mikey Madison's performance since seeing it the first time. It's physically demanding, it's high-energy, it's endlessly charismatic, and she has to shift emotional gears so many times as Ani tries her damndest to navigate an impossible and chaotic situation. You feel the weight of every decision and statement she makes, such that when the wave crashes at the end, your emotional state matches hers. It's astounding.
But in all likelihood, she'll be back here some day. So while winning would be great, she'll almost certainly have another chance.
Best Actor
My Pick & Prediction - Adrien Brody for The Brutalist
Brody has been on a tear all season, losing very few of the precursors. Until last weekend, when Timothee Chalamet took home the SAG, which has been the most predictive in recent years. The preponderance of evidence still has Brody the favorite, but Chalamet could pull it out. If he does, he'd become the youngest Best Actor winner in history, dethroning...Adrien Brody for The Pianist.
As good as Timmy is, from the moment Brody steps on screen in The Brutalist, he commands it. He crafts a real person from a simple script, one whose internal life you feel at each moment. His uncomfortable rapport with the Van Burens, the push and pull with his family, everything worn on his face. It's as towering as I was led to believe, if not more.
Best Director
My Pick - Sean Baker for Anora
My Prediction - Brady Corbet for The Brutalist
I remain frustrated with how auteur-centric Americans are. Critics and audiences alike will often advocate for collapsing this category into Best Picture, and the voters align their winners about two-thirds of the time. While the director of course plays an outsized role in the final result, moviemaking is far too collaborative an endeavor for one person to get sole credit.
They still do deserve a bunch of credit, though. Baker has a bit of an unfair advantage, as he didn't have to work with an editor - he was the editor. But his ability to constrain the tone to achieve exactly the emotional response he wanted was impressive, and he got wonderful performances out of each and every performer. That said, Corbet has been racking up the wins, despite losing to Baker at the DGAs. With the chaos of the year, I feel like it's more likely we'll get a split than most years.
Best Picture
My Pick - Nickel Boys
My Prediction - Anora
Given that my number one movie of the year was nominated, of course that's my pick.
Unfortunately, it's got no chance.
After a very up and down awards season, there's no clear favorite. Perceived front-runners have come and gone, and the tragic LA wildfires shuffled around the awards calendar such that the power of some precursors is in question. The result is a three way race. It's hard to count out The Brutalist, given how unlikely that movie's success was as a 3.5 hour arthouse film about an architect. Conclave wasn't seen as a true contender until it won the BAFTA, then proved it wasn't a fluke by winning Best Ensemble at SAG. But Anora has refused to go away since winning the Palme d'Or at Cannes in May, and in one weekend brought home the PGA, DGA, and Critics' Choice awards. So while far from a lock, it retains front-runner status.
Ranking
As always, I’ll wrap up by counting down my ranking of the Best Picture nominees.