The 2026 Oscars
It's a bizarre feeling for my two favorite1 movies of the year to be duking it out over the big night's top honors.
While the past few years have seen quite a few of my top ten nominated for Best Picture, my favorite has never been the front-runner, never mind my top two. So even if my preferred choice loses, I'll still be delighted.
Granted, it seems unlikely that will come to pass. In Best Picture and Best Director, this awards season has been incredibly stable. Although Sinners has refused to back down, bringing out much enthusiasm whenever it wins an award, it's largely been unable to surpass One Battle After Another for either top award. Still, the spirited battle demonstrates just how much the industry loves both of these movies, as do audiences.
Which makes the doom in the air for Warner Bros. all the more frustrating. Despite distributing both of those films, and after an insane streak of financially successful opening weekends (only recently broken by a disastrous one for The Bride!), its acquisition by Paramount Skydance will likely be complete by this time next year. The idea that Warner Bros. should be sold at all is preposterous. Their debt comes from their last merger, and after a rocky start to 2025, they righted the ship to become the envy of Hollywood. In another era, this merger would easily be blocked on antitrust grounds. But in our worst of all possible worlds, Paramount CEO's bootlicking has guaranteed clear sailing through Trump's FTC.
Not that the major studios are all that matter. The indie scene is vibrant as ever, despite filmmakers' difficulties securing financing and gaining distribution. A24 and Neon continue serving their ever-growing niches incredibly well. And the increasing visibility of the festival circuit provides an interesting counterpoint to theatrical distribution. So while the movies are in no risk of dying (see the persistence of ballet and opera, even as they've been sidelined from cultural relevance), the radical change that was already accelerated by the COVID-19 pandemic has been further intensified by the late-capitalistic age of consolidation we find ourselves in, with its focus on profit over profundity. Which sucks.
So let's celebrate while we brace for what's to come.
Although technically, when I rewatched Resurrection in January, that took over my top spot. But they were my top two at the end of the year.↩
My Picks & Predictions
Here we go! For each category, I’ll name what I think should win from amongst the nominees, what I think will win (if that’s different), and then some comments on the category and nominees and snubs and such.
Best Visual Effects
My Pick & Prediction - Avatar: Fire and Ash
It's a simple formula: if, an Avatar movie came out this year, it will win best VFX. If you were fortunate enough to see it in IMAX 3D, then you understand. Its visual grandeur is unmatched, and given its budget, it'd better be. Not only that, but as I mentioned, it's the first film to crack how to make 48fps look good. Not only good, but great! I just wish the narrative was up to snuff.
The rest of the noms are similar; the quality of their effects far outpace their overall quality. I do want to call out The Lost Bus, which has the best looking digital fire I've seen on screen...ever? I can only imagine how incredible it would have looked on the big screen; as an Apple TV+ release, I'll never know. If only director Paul Greengrass had been confident enough to lean more into the disaster movie side, and excise the groaningly awful family drama, I may be out here banging the drum as an underseen gem. Instead, it was...fine.
Best Film Editing
My Pick & Prediction - One Battle After Another
The way PTA and editor Andy Jurgensen shift speeds at will is impressive. The opening thirty minutes flies by like the most jarring and intense montage of the year, before slamming on the brakes to move into a much gentler mode for a while. As the pot begins to boil, you instinctively grip the arm rests tightly, even when there's a brief reprieve such as the most hilarious pratfall of the year. It's always so confident, so propulsive, so perfect. Before you know it, you're approaching the end, witnessing one of the best car chases ever committed to celluloid, whose impact is obviously bolstered by all departments humming in perfect harmony, but whose editing means we find ourselves in the headspace of each character at every moment it lasts. By the time "American Girl" kicks in, it's been nearly three hours, but you're left feeling fresh and energized. It's magical.
Best Costume Design
My Pick - Sinners
My Prediction - Frankenstein
My prediction here is simple: the other nominees have combined to win a fraction of the awards for costuming that Frankenstein has on its own. No reason to expect that to change.
Although the consensus is a bit odd, for while Elizabeth's dresses were marvelous, they're the only clothing that stands out in my mind four months later. Whereas I could describe almost everyone's style in Sinners, and how it changes throughout the story. All fit the time period, while remaining distinct. And the mid-credits scene evoking the 90s? Perfection.
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
My Pick - The Ugly Stepsister
My Prediction - Frankenstein
People love Jacob Elordi, and they love the monster. I'm not crazy about the design, although it works well enough, hammering home Victor's ugliness and the monster's inner beauty. So sure.
I desperately want to give my award to Kokuho, a three hour Japanese epic about kabuki theater, and specifically the art of onnagata. It's wonderful, made me cry multiple times, and represents the best of what the Oscars can do: introduce audiences to movies they'd otherwise have never heard of, never mind seen.
But I cannot deny The Ugly Stepsister, (reductively) summed up as "What if David Cronenberg made Cinderella from the perspective of her sister?" It's absurdly effective and incredibly upsetting, even as the movie around it never really sings.
Best Cinematography
My Pick & Prediction - Sinners
Being one of the few defenders of Gia Coppola's last few movies (most recently The Last Showgirl), I was ecstatic to see that the incredible imagery and purposefully athletic camera that had just floored me in Sinners was overseen by her longtime collaborator, Autumn Durald Arkapaw. It's not that the camerawork in the other nominees is bad (although what is Frankenstein doing here...), but her approach was so emotional and fluid and alive. It's perfectly married to the events on screen, and is a critical part of why Sinners contained the rare non-dialogue scene to make me cry on both viewings. And for all the talk of which premium format was the best way to view it, my very first viewing was in a suboptimal seat in a standard, laser-projected theater. So while those premium formats do matter, the film sings no matter how you see it.
With Michael Bauman for One Battle After Another prevailing at the ASC awards last weekend has him the betting favorite, and that movie does look incredible, I choose to believe the Oscars made the right choice.
Best Production Design
My Pick - Sinners
My Prediction - Frankenstein
In recent years, the winner of Best Costume Design has matched Best Production more often than not, including the last two years. Tamara Deverell & Shane Vieau earn it in the first half of Frankenstein, leaning hard into the grotesqueries that director Guillermo del Toro is known for without crossing the line into cartoonish. The back half isn't bad, it's just far less memorable.
I almost want to give it to One Battle After Another for Sensei Sergio's apartment alone, but in the end, mu pick is Sinners. Every single element of that world is so well placed, so well crafted, so of its time and place, transporting you back to Mississippi in 1931. You can nearly smell the juke joint, the mass of bodies, the dripping sweat. Marty Supreme is quieter with its touches, which are similarly immaculate, but the world of Sinners played into my emotions in a way that Marty's mad dashes obstructed.
Best Sound
My Pick - Sirāt
My Prediction - F1
Best Sound so often feels like a category in which the voters lean towards nominating and picking the movie they like the most. How else do you explain the presence of Frankenstein here, whose sonic identity is indistinct enough that I already can recall none of it? Granted, Sinners and One Battle After Another are far more drive by music than sound, so they're also a little out of place.
F1 is an exception, although it's largely used for "cars go fast". Yeah, it's effective, but it doesn't create much emotion in me. You know what does? Raves in the middle of the desert, hearing nondescript vans and RVs rev their engines, feeling the howl of the wind on a mountain, and a sudden, deafening silence. Some of the magic of Sirāt's sound is actually its deployment of music, but it all mixes together in a way that needles your soul.
Although personally, I find it preposterous that Warfare isn't recognized here. It would probably be my winner.
Best Casting
My Pick - Marty Supreme
My Prediction - Sinners
This is the first new category to be added to the Oscars in twenty-five years, returning the number of awards to twenty-four after Best Sound Design and Best Sound Editing merged in 2019. As such, there isn't much precedent of how this body will vote (although other costuming awards exist, of course). The consensus seems to be Sinners, presumably because members are eager to award that movie, and it has a bunch of great performances. But as armchair analysts (such as myself) are quick to point out, casting is about how well everyone fits their roles and aids in creating the world, regardless of the quality of performance. Ever see a movie where the actor seems like a natural fit for a role, and then you see the movie, and it's a disaster? The casting was still successful.
To that end, I'm on board with Marty Supreme. He has so, so many interactions with small characters on screen for a minute or two at most, many of whom don't even get names, but they all contribute to the pastiche of archetypes we associate with 50s New York. To say nothing of the inspired top-line casting: Mr. Wonderful's film debut playing...well, himself; Gwenyth Paltrow in a somewhat metatextual role; Odessa A'Zion! Even the more straightforward pulls (Chalamet is excellent, but him playing a cocky dirtbag isn't exactly a reach) are outstanding.
Best Original Song
My Pick - "I Lied to You" from Sinners
My Prediction - "Golden" from KPop Demon Hunters
I really wish they'd just ax this category already. They're already gesturing in that direction, with no performances last year and only two this year. And if the singers aren't being invited to work their magic on stage, what's the point?
"Golden" was always going to win, and it's not even close. Which is too bad, because Miles Caton's unbelievably soulful performances throughout Sinners are astounding, including the wonderful little song that transmogrifies into the best and most moving sequence of the year.
Best Original Score
My Pick & Prediction - Sinners
As Sinners' closing credits moved across the screen (set to a beautiful performance by Buddy Guy), I eagerly searched for the composer. I'd been thinking it called to mind the Oppenheimer score from a few years ago, so I was simultaneously delighted and unsurprised when Göransson's name appeared. Ludwig Göransson may already have two Oscars (one from working with Coogler), but how can you deny his work here? It was instantly my favorite score of the year, and its place was never under threat.
Which isn't to say it's been a bad year for music, even as the other nominees are...bizarre. As much as I enjoy the strangeness of the Bugonia score, and although "On the Nature of Daylight" is my favorite modern classical piece, only One Battle After Another belongs. Which is a shame, as they neglected Marty Supreme, Sirāt, Black Bag, Caught Stealing, and Highest 2 Lowest. Hell, I'd even put up Rabbit Trap. And The Testament of Ann Lee, although its eligibility is questionable, given most of the lyrics are adapted from old Shaker hymns.
At least the best of all of them is a shoe-in to win.
Best Animated Short Film
My Pick - Butterfly
My Prediction - The Girl Who Cried Pearls
The strongest of the shorts category retains its crown. Each film showcases a wildly different animation style, reminding audiences how tragic it is that most mainstream American animation looks exactly the same.
I'm always drawn to abstract, surreal storytelling, and when the animation is used to heighten that feeling while telling a devastating story of oppression and personal loss and the struggle to continue existing, of course I'm going to fall in love with it. Butterfly's shifting, unstable, dream-like collage of watercolors covered in streak marks, its non-linear approach to memory, and the moments of unbelievable beauty it finds in the mundane set it a cut above. Although I cannot claim it was easy; Forevergreen was a very close second, and is probably the most stunning animation I've seen in a bit.
Best Live Action Short Film
My Pick - Two People Exchanging Saliva
My Prediction - Jane Austen's Period Drama
The experience of watching Two People Exchanging Saliva with no prior knowledge is wild. They so quickly craft a world that's slightly askew from ours, and yet the textures and meaning of it feel so recognizable. The humor is subtle yet profound, and its tender story of forbidden love and fighting through societal oppression is very familiar. Which is part of the point; everything about it feels like a loving parody of pretentious film school projects, but pulled off with such skill that it's hard to mind.
That said, the charming and well-observed Jane Austen's Period Drama feels like a more broadly appealing option, despite hammering into the ground its one-note joke. And grounding their parody in Ang Lee's Sense and Sensibility is sure to win it extra points as it gives viewers that kick of nostalgia. I could also see A Friend of Dorothy pulling it out, as that's another powerful story that manages to be charming and funny, with a dash of highlighting the importance of stories.
Best Documentary Short Subject
My Pick - The Devil Is Busy
My Prediction - All the Empty Rooms
I was quite pleased with the documentary shorts this year! Apart from remaining utterly baffled during my second viewing of Perfectly a Strangeness, all of them were at least decent. None were particularly boundary pushing, but they managed to come at important subjects from fresh(-ish) angles, avoiding the trap of "simply" being talking head docs. Although even the best had trouble sustaining their momentum, failing to deliver on their ultimate promise.
Only Perfectly a Strangeness was shorter than thirty minutes. It's an instinct I'm fascinated by. Although maybe it's simply a symptom of many of their directors lacking experience; they've yet to learn the value of brevity in strengthening their point. And it's easier to amass a ton of usable footage than when you need to craft a reason for its existence, such as with animation or live action narratives.
Best Documentary Feature
My Pick - The Alabama Solution
My Prediction - The Perfect Neighbor
Last season's nomination of Soundtrack to a Coup d'Etat got my hopes up that maybe, just maybe, the documentary branch was beginning to embrace more fully the breadth of what their discipline has to offer. Alas...
Although I must note the unorthodox approaches to filming present in a couple. The Perfect Neighbor largely uses body cam footage, which can be super effective as seen in last year's winner, Incident. However, it's broken up here by cutting to random shots of the sky between scenes and accompanying them with voice-over, not to mention breaking away from that when the action moves off the street. The Alabama Solution is even more novel, as all the footage comes from cell phones smuggled into Alabama prisons. Despite the continued mistreatment of its subjects, I agree with the prognosticators: The Perfect Neighbor is effective enough at showing the tick-tock of how such an atrocity comes to pass that it will likely prevail.
Best International Feature Film
My Pick - Sirāt
My Prediction - Sentimental Value
On first and second watch, Sirāt absolutely floored me. It's the combination of ecstasy with fear, of perseverance with the aid of community, and the lamentation that we'll never be safe in the modern world, no matter how far we are from other people. It's bleak as hell, but its deeply human core nonetheless gives you a way through the darkness.
But whenever an international film is nominated for Best Picture, it wins this award. This year, there are two! Which to pick? Well, despite its initial momentum, The Secret Agent has been losing steam. Its only real chance at any other award is Wagner Maura for Best Actor, but I've bought into the idea that his last precursor victory came too long ago, while the other nominees have had a chance to speak since then, diminishing his chances. Compare that with the many nominations for Sentimental Value, and it becomes clear who the Academy currently favors.
Best Animated Feature Film
My Pick - Little Amélie or the Character of Rain
My Prediction - KPop Demon Hunters
It's been a pretty weak year for animation. Granted, I tend to gravitate towards the experimental end of the spectrum, while the Oscars insist animation is for kids. Admittedly, I quite liked Little Amélie, whose story of a toddler waking up to the world is told in a unique way, as its subject goes through a coming-of-age arc as applied to learning about the concepts of "death" and "carp". But all their stories are fairly simplistic (even as Arco's worldbuiding starts strong), and their animation mostly fails to impress. Although Little Amélie had moments where its simplistic style exploded into beauty, it's only KPop Demon Hunters that wowed from start to finish, even if they're simply following in the footsteps of Spider-Verse.
Of course, as has been the case for the past few years, the competition has been over for months. KPop Demon Hunters was an immediate phenomenon, even prompting a post-release theatrical push from Netflix.
Best Adapted Screenplay
My Pick & Prediction - One Battle After Another
What makes One Battle After Another such a neat feat of adaptation is how it took the building blocks of Vineland and reworked them to fit the current moment. The 60s becomes the 00s, and the 80s becomes now. But the fundamental characteristics of its ideas on revolution and violence are recognizable, and PTA wonderfully employs the type of humor Pynchon loves. I mean, come on - the Christmas Adventurers Club is a Pynchonian name if I've ever heard one, and yet it's original to the film. All of that means that I see no reason to discount all of its precursor wins.
Best Original Screenplay
My Pick & Prediction - Sinners
It's been a rough year at the box office for original screenplays, but don't let that fool you; domestically, Sinners is the highest grossing in a decade. It's had the misfortune of going up against One Battle After Another in a lot of the precursor awards, but whenever original and adapted have been split out, Sinners has topped its side of the fence. Deservedly so; I was so enjoying the character dynamics that I was almost disappointed when the vampires showed up. But then Coogler weaves them into the plot so poignantly that they become a part of that development instead of a distraction from it. Just masterful.
Best Supporting Actress
My Pick - Teyana Taylor (One Battle After Another)
My Prediction - Amy Madigan (Weapons)
After being hesitant around genre movies for so much of their history, the Oscars seem to be coming around on horror. Not every year, and not fully; see Weapons' omission from Best Picture. But enough that I think it'll be hard for them to ignore the wave of wins and cultural cache that Madigan has built up on this awards season, not to mention her absolutely delightful entrance into the movie.
I can't quibble too hard with Madigan, but I've been a huge Teyana Taylor fan since A Thousand and One, for which she was rudely overlooked. And although she's only in about thirty minutes of One Battle After Another, her presence looms large over the entire plot in a myriad of ways, informed by just how instantly memorable her performance is.
Best Supporting Actor
My Pick - Sean Penn (One Battle After Another)
My Prediction - Stellan Skarsgård (Sentimental Value)
While both supporting performance awards have been intensely unsettled all season, this is the tougher of the two. With the exception of Lindo, a well-deserved but surprising nomination, all of them have received their flowers. Penn comes in with the most momentum courtesy of his win at The Actor Awards, but given the love for Benicio's performance in the same film, it seems quite possible they split and clear the way for Stellan in Sentimental Value.
While I like all the nominees (and love three), my favorites were never in the conversation. Ralph Finnes was probably the closest, but The Long Walk easily put David Jonsson amongst my favorite actors. And that I've heard nary a mention of John Carroll Lynch's unbelievable single scene in Sorry, Baby is even more disappointing than the Oscars failing to throw that movie even a screenplay nomination.
Best Actress
My Pick & Prediction - Jessie Buckley (Hamnet)
This race has been over since it began. Byrne received some love from critic associations early, but as soon as the bigger, industry-focused electorates entered into the fray, it was decided. And if you've seen Hamnet, you know why; in a movie in which she's surrounded by incredible performances (including the young Jacoby Jupe), Buckley stands head and shoulders above the rest from her very first scene.
Best Actor
My Pick & Prediction - Michael B. Jordan (Sinners)
As with supporting, the men's category is the unsettled one, with what looks to me to be a three-way race. Wagner Moura has won a some key precursors, and Timothée Chalamet has won a bunch. But Michael B. Jordan has done both, including at The Actor Awards, and in a movie that clearly has a ton of support from both the public and the industry. He's not a lock, but boy would it feel awesome to finally hand him his flowers for his decades of uniformly outstanding work.
Best Director
My Pick & Prediction - Paul Thomas Anderson (One Battle After Another)
The more time passes, and the more enthusiasm there is for Sinners online and at awards ceremonies and in real life, the more people are taking seriously the idea of Best Director splitting with Best Picture. It's not crazy; it last happened just a few years ago, and has become more common in the 21st century, with nearly half of the split winners all time coming this century.
That said, the outpouring of admiration for a master who's been at the top of his craft for thirty years is powerful, and has only intensified as he's honed his speeches. While I'd certainly be happy to see Coogler receive this award, I give the edge to PTA.
Best Picture
My Pick & Prediction - One Battle After Another
Since the end of September, when it instantly became clear that audiences were in agreement with early critical assessment, One Battle After Another has been at the top of people's Best Picture predictions. Then, it ran the table on "Best Picture" awards at the precursors, both major and minor. While Sinners has been winning ensemble awards, the bulk of its achievements have come everywhere except the headline. That said, the race isn't over; there's clearly a ton of enthusiasm for Sinners in the industry, as every win is accompanied by people going nuts. It'll certainly be fun to see that kind of energy at the Oscars as it wins in other categories, although I'm not looking forward to the online reaction when it loses Best Picture.
Ranking
As always, I’ll wrap up by counting down my ranking of the Best Picture nominees.
While good, this crop of nominees is a bit top-heavy: four of them are in my personal top ten (!), two were only okay, and one was flat out bad. That stark divide between the best and worst is what sets it apart from the past few years. Although usually, it's not the blockbuster nominee I take issue with, surprisingly.